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party affiliation by age 2020

This same pattern is seen among several other religious groups, including white evangelicals, though it is not as pronounced as among Jewish voters. Since 1994, the share of white voters in the country declined from 85% to 68% today. There are distinctions in party identification among voters who have at least a four-year degree and those who have not completed college. Pew Research Center does not take policy positions. You can see racial and ethnic breakdown of eligible voters in all 50 states – and how it changed between 2000 and 2018 – with this interactive feature. Voters in the Silent Generation are now about equally likely to identify with or lean toward the GOP as the Democratic Party (49% to 48%). As recently as 2007, white voters without a college degree were about evenly divided in their leaned party affiliation. Among voters living in urban counties, the Democratic Party holds a tw0-to-one advantage in leaned party identification (62% to 31%). Overall, 34% of registered voters identify as independent, compared with 33% who identify as Democrats and 29% who identify as Republicans. However, over the past few years the Democratic Party has lost some ground among Millennials, even as it has improved its standing among the oldest cohort of adults, the Silent Generation. It rose from 43 to 52 among Republican registered voters and from 45 to 49 among Democratic registered voters. The GOP continues to maintain an advantage in leaned party identification among white voters (53% to 42%). For example, 72% of voters in the Northeast who live in urban counties associate with the Democratic Party, compared with 49% of Northeastern voters who live in rural counties. The combination of a global pandemic and public concerns about the integrity of the election have created widespread uncertainty, and that uncertainty makes it even more difficult than usual to assess who will vote and who won’t. Among Millennials, 42% identify as independents, compared with 35% of Gen Xers, 30% of Baby Boomers and 25% of Silents. However, there have been notable shifts in leaned party affiliation within generations by gender in recent years. In a study of validated voters in 2016, 5% of Democrats and Democratic leaners reported voting for Trump, and 4% of Republicans and GOP leaners reported voting for Hillary Clinton. The current gap in leaned party affiliation continues to be among the widest in yearly Pew Research Center surveys dating to 1994. Over the past 25 years, white male voters with a four-year degree have moved away from the GOP, while those without a degree have moved toward the party. Looking at the electorate through a generational lens, Millennials (ages 24 to 39 in 2020), who now constitute a larger share of the population than other cohorts, also are more Democratic leaning than older generations: 54% of Millennials identify with the Democratic Party or lean Democratic, while 38% identify with or lean to the GOP. The broader trends in leaned party affiliation by gender and education can be seen among white voters. For one thing, not all registered voters end up voting. In 2017, the Democratic Party held a wider 59% t0 32% advantage among this group. Both groups have moved toward the GOP over the past decade, though the shift has been slightly more pronounced among those with no more than a high school diploma than those with some college experience. Generation continues to be a dividing line in American politics, with Millennials more likely than older generations to associate with the Democratic Party. As a result, the gender gap in leaned Democratic Party affiliation between Gen X men and women has grown from 11 points in 2017 to 18 points in combined 2018-2019 data. In 1996, the reverse was true: 27% of GOP voters had a college degree, compared with 22% of Democratic voters. AK | AL | AR | AZ | CA | CO | CT | DC | DE | FL | GA | HI | IA | ID | IL | IN | KS | KY | LA | MA | MD | ME | MI | MN | MO | MS | MT | NC | ND | NE | NH | NJ | NM | NV | NY | OH | OK | OR | PA | RI | SC | SD | TN | TX | UT | VA | VT | WA | WI | WV | WY. The Democratic Party’s advantage over the GOP is somewhat less pronounced among voters with a four-year college degree and no postgraduate experience (53% to 40%). That represents a dramatic change from the end of the George W. Bush administration, when this group was about evenly divided in leaned party identification. Unless otherwise noted, all findings are based on registered voters. Numbers, Facts and Trends Shaping Your World. There has been less change among white voters with some college experience but no four-year degree. Republican gains among those without a college degree are especially visible among white voters. These statistics are not actual votes. While white men with a college degree have also moved away from the GOP, the sharper movement among college-graduate white women has expanded the partisan gap between the two groups. Among women with a college degree, the Democratic Party holds a wide 35-point advantage in leaned party affiliation (65% t0 30%). In 2017, the Democratic Party enjoyed a wider 8-point advantage in leaned party identification (50% to 42%). However, nearly half (47%) of Jewish voters who attend religious services at least a few times a month identify with or lean toward the Republican Party, compared with a much smaller share (22%) of those who attend services less often. Reporting states with race or ethnicity data: NC, SC. Of course, just because a registered voter identifies with or leans toward a particular party does not necessarily mean they will vote for a candidate of that party (or vote at all). Still, the partisan leanings of Silent voters have fluctuated over the past few decades, and there have been other moments where the two parties ran about even – or the Democratic Party held a narrow advantage – since 1994. By federal law, election officials do not begin counting ballots until Election Day, although they may start the process of preparing ballots for counting in advance. While the gender gap in partisanship is long-standing, it has gradually expanded since 2014 and now stands at 14 points. The median age among all registered voters increased from 44 in 1996 to 50 in 2019. It conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, media content analysis and other empirical social science research. Gen X women are 3 points more likely to identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party than they were in 2017, while Gen X men have become 4 points more likely to associate with the GOP. (Of course, not all eligible voters end up registering and actually casting a ballot.). While the Democratic Party still holds a wide 60% to 31% advantage among this group, it’s significantly smaller than it was in 2017 (70% to 23%), which was a high-water mark for the party among this group. Southern voters in urban counties are less likely than their Northeastern counterparts to identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party (55% vs. 72%). While the partisan preferences of both men and women without a college degree have moved toward the GOP over the past decade, this marks a return to about the same levels of partisanship seen in 1994, as the Republican Party has regained ground it had lost between the late 1990s and end of the George W. Bush administration. Partisanship has become increasingly tied to religious identification over the past quarter century. Among voters with a college degree, white men are 17 points more likely than white women to identify with or lean toward the GOP. Among nonwhite voters, about two-thirds or more identify with or lean to the Democratic Party. Voters in suburban counties are about evenly divided in their leaned party affiliation, as they have been for much of the past 20 years. Voters with some postgraduate experience, in addition to a four-year college degree, are especially likely to associate with the Democratic Party. Among white voters with a college degree, those with some postgraduate experience stand out for their strong Democratic orientation. These statistics are not actual votes. See detailed tables. Party registration statistics are provided only for states that have party registration, Returned Mail Ballots by Party Registration, Outstanding Mail Ballots (Yet to be Returned) by Party Registration. As a result, the gender gap in leaned Democratic Party affiliation between Gen X men and women has grown from 11 points in 2017 to 18 points in combined 2018-2019 data. In the past 10 years, both men and women without a college degree have edged toward the GOP in their leaned party affiliation.

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